Homeboyz
vs
KCB
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCB
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Homeboyz vs KCB overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Homeboyz vs KCB
| Probability | Homeboyz | Draw | KCB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 29.4% | 35.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.2% | 29.4% | 35.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCB
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Homeboyz vs KCB match preview
Homeboyz and KCB are set to face off in a closely contested match, with both teams having a 35% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for each team stand at 1.26, indicating a balanced matchup. Recent form shows Homeboyz struggling with two draws and three losses in their last six matches, while KCB has managed two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same period.
Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have ended in draws, with Homeboyz unable to secure a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 53% likelihood of scoring in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Homeboyz and KCB expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Homeboyz and KCB attack and defence ratings
Homeboyz
KCB
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Homeboyz vs KCB markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCB | 35.4% | 2.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 35.2% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| KCB | 35.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCB win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 64.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-0 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Homeboyz vs KCB stats
Homeboyz vs KCB head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | KCB | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Homeboyz | KCB | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.