3K
vs
GOR Mahia
Garuda Lions Prediction: GOR Mahia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — GOR Mahia is the favourite, not a value bet.
3K vs GOR Mahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: 3K vs GOR Mahia
| Probability | 3K | Draw | GOR Mahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 27.1% | 31.9% |
| Market | 14.0% | 23.9% | 62.2% |
| Final | 20.7% | 24.7% | 54.6% |
| Edge | +6.7% | +0.8% | -7.6% |
Why GOR Mahia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.1% per unit staked (our 54.6% × 1.50 − 1).
3K vs GOR Mahia match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match, 3K faces GOR Mahia with kickoff scheduled for November 15, 2026. According to our model, 3K has a 21% chance of winning, while GOR Mahia is favored at 55%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. The expected goals for 3K stand at 1.08, compared to GOR Mahia's 1.39.
Recent form shows 3K with a record of L-W-D-D, while GOR Mahia has experienced a mixed run of W-W-W-W-L-L. Our model indicates a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score, reflecting an expectation for an engaging match. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
3K and GOR Mahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
3K and GOR Mahia attack and defence ratings
3K
GOR Mahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
3K vs GOR Mahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 54.6% | 1.83 | -7.6% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 3K | 20.7% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| GOR Mahia | 54.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | GOR Mahia win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
3K vs GOR Mahia stats
3K vs GOR Mahia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
3K vs GOR Mahia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.3%, draw 23.9%, away 61.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.59 | 3.74 | 1.45 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 6.25 | 3.74 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .