Murang'a SEAL
vs
Mathare United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mathare United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United
| Probability | Murang'a SEAL | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 28.1% | 39.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.6% | 28.1% | 39.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United match preview
Murang'a SEAL faces Mathare United in a Kenyan Premier League matchup on October 16, 2026. According to our model, Mathare United has a 39% probability of winning, while Murang'a SEAL stands at 33%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The expected goals for Murang'a SEAL is 1.28, compared to Mathare United's 1.43, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows Murang'a SEAL with two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Mathare United has two wins, three losses, and one draw. In their last two head-to-head matches, Murang'a SEAL has secured one victory and one draw against Mathare United, who have yet to win in this matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United attack and defence ratings
Murang'a SEAL
Mathare United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Murang'a SEAL | 32.6% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Mathare United | 39.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.1% |
| No | 43.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mathare United win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United stats
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United recent form
| Murang'a SEAL |
WWLWLL |
| Mathare United |
WLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Murang'a SEAL | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Mathare United | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.