Murang'a SEAL
vs
Mathare United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mathare United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United
| Probability | Murang'a SEAL | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.7% | 28.2% | 42.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.7% | 28.2% | 42.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United match preview
Murang'a SEAL faces Mathare United in a Kenyan Premier League matchup on November 15, 2026. According to our model, Mathare United has a 42% chance of winning, compared to Murang'a SEAL's 30% and a 28% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals metric showing Murang'a SEAL at 1.52 and Mathare United at 1.40.
In terms of recent form, Murang'a SEAL has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Mathare United has two wins, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters favors Murang'a SEAL, who have achieved two wins and two draws against Mathare United, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United attack and defence ratings
Murang'a SEAL
Mathare United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Murang'a SEAL | 29.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Mathare United | 42.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mathare United win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.0% |
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United stats
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United recent form
| Murang'a SEAL |
WLWLWW |
| Mathare United |
WDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Murang'a SEAL | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Mathare United | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | Murang'a SEAL | Mathare United | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-10 | Mathare United | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.