Ulinzi Stars
vs
Migori Youth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ulinzi Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 31.9% | 26.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.8% | 31.9% | 26.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ulinzi Stars
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.91.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth match preview
Ulinzi Stars are set to face Migori Youth in the Kenyan Premier League, with the model projecting a 42% chance of victory for Ulinzi Stars, a 32% likelihood of a draw, and a 26% chance for Migori Youth. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Ulinzi Stars, with a 13% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.21 for Ulinzi Stars and 0.91 for Migori Youth.
Ulinzi Stars have shown solid recent form, recording three wins, one loss, and one draw in their last five matches. In contrast, Migori Youth's recent form is not available. The model indicates a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Migori Youth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 41.8% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Migori Youth | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth stats
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
WWWLDW |
| Migori Youth |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.