Ulinzi Stars
vs
Migori Youth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ulinzi Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ulinzi Stars is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 32.6% | 31.7% |
| Market | 35.2% | 31.7% | 33.1% |
| Final | 35.3% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.2% | -0.4% |
Why Ulinzi Stars
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.6% per unit staked (our 35.3% × 2.53 − 1).
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth match preview
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth are set to face off in the Kenyan Premier League, with Ulinzi Stars holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 35% for a win, compared to Migori Youth at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Ulinzi Stars recording two wins in their last six matches, while Migori Youth has drawn their last three games.
In terms of expected goals, Ulinzi Stars is projected to score 0.81, while Migori Youth is slightly behind at 0.78. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 35%, and there is a 44% chance that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this fixture is rated as C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.59
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Migori Youth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 35.3% | 2.83 | +0.1% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 35.3% |
| Draw | 31.9% | |
| Migori Youth | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 10.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 68.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth stats
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
LDDLWW |
| Migori Youth |
DDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 31.7%, away 33.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.53 | 2.81 | 2.69 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 2.60 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.53 | 2.81 | 2.69 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .