Mombasa Elite
vs
Ulinzi Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ulinzi Stars
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars
| Probability | Mombasa Elite | Draw | Ulinzi Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.9% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.9% | 32.8% | 34.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ulinzi Stars
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars match preview
Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Mombasa Elite has a 33% chance of winning, while Ulinzi Stars stands at 34%, with a draw also at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Expected goals for Mombasa Elite are 1.03, compared to Ulinzi Stars' 1.06, indicating a closely matched contest.
In terms of recent form, Mombasa Elite has recorded a win and a loss in their last two matches, while Ulinzi Stars has experienced a mixed run with two wins, a loss, a draw, and another win in their last five outings. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 43%, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars attack and defence ratings
Mombasa Elite
Ulinzi Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mombasa Elite | 32.9% |
| Draw | 32.8% | |
| Ulinzi Stars | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-1 | 11.8% |
Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars stats
Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars recent form
| Mombasa Elite |
LW |
| Ulinzi Stars |
LWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.