Nairobi United
vs
Tusker
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Nairobi United vs Tusker overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs Tusker
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | Tusker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.1% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.1% | 33.2% | 31.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Nairobi United vs Tusker match preview
Nairobi United faces Tusker in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Nairobi United has a 35% chance of winning, while Tusker has a 32% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United, with an expected goals tally of 1.05 for them compared to Tusker's 0.98.
In terms of recent form, Nairobi United has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Tusker has seen better days with two wins, two draws, and two losses in their recent outings. Historically, Nairobi United has dominated their last two encounters, winning both without conceding.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and Tusker expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Nairobi United and Tusker attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
Tusker
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs Tusker markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 35.1% |
| Draw | 33.2% | |
| Tusker | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-0 | 12.4% |
Nairobi United vs Tusker stats
Nairobi United and Tusker recent form
| Nairobi United |
DWDDLW |
| Tusker |
WWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs Tusker head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Nairobi United | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Tusker | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.