Migori Youth
vs
AFC Leopards
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Leopards
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards
| Probability | Migori Youth | Draw | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 32.2% | 35.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.8% | 32.2% | 35.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AFC Leopards
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards match preview
Migori Youth and AFC Leopards are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are closely contested, with Migori Youth at 33%, a draw at 32%, and AFC Leopards slightly ahead at 35%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability.
In terms of expected goals, Migori Youth is forecasted to score 1.05, while AFC Leopards is slightly favored with an expected 1.09 goals. Recent form shows Migori Youth drawing their last match, while AFC Leopards has had a mixed run with two draws and three results leading to wins. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 36%, and both teams to score is estimated at 45%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Migori Youth and AFC Leopards expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.15
Migori Youth and AFC Leopards attack and defence ratings
Migori Youth
AFC Leopards
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 35.0% | 2.86 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 32.8% |
| Draw | 32.2% | |
| AFC Leopards | 35.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 65.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.0% | |
| 0-1 | 11.4% |
Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards stats
Migori Youth and AFC Leopards recent form
| Migori Youth |
D |
| AFC Leopards |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.