Ulinzi Stars
vs
AFC Leopards
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.0% | 35.2% | 31.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.0% | 35.2% | 31.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards match preview
Ulinzi Stars face AFC Leopards in a tightly contested match, with probabilities suggesting a near-even split among the outcomes: Ulinzi Stars at 33%, a draw at 35%, and AFC Leopards at 32%. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Ulinzi Stars recording two wins in their last five matches, while AFC Leopards have also secured two wins but with a less consistent performance overall.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-0, occurring 17% of the time, indicating a potentially defensive encounter. Expected goals are closely matched, with Ulinzi Stars at 0.93 and AFC Leopards at 0.91. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 28%, and both teams to score is estimated at 37%, suggesting a cautious approach may prevail in this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and AFC Leopards expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
Ulinzi Stars and AFC Leopards attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
AFC Leopards
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 35.2% | 2.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 33.0% |
| Draw | 35.2% | |
| AFC Leopards | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.4% |
| No | 62.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 12.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 67.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.5% |
Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards stats
Ulinzi Stars and AFC Leopards recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
DDLWWW |
| AFC Leopards |
DWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Ulinzi Stars | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2025-12-18 | AFC Leopards | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.