GOR Mahia
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: GOR Mahia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | GOR Mahia | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.1% | 33.3% | 27.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.1% | 33.3% | 27.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why GOR Mahia
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite match preview
GOR Mahia faces Mombasa Elite in the Kenyan Premier League with GOR Mahia holding a 39% probability of winning, while Mombasa Elite stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 14%. GOR Mahia has shown mixed recent form with three wins followed by three losses, while Mombasa Elite has drawn once and lost twice in their last four matches.
In terms of expected goals, GOR Mahia is forecasted to score 1.11, compared to Mombasa Elite's 0.89. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are given a 41% likelihood of scoring at least once. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GOR Mahia and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
GOR Mahia and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
GOR Mahia
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 39.1% |
| Draw | 33.3% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | GOR Mahia win | 16.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.9% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 13.7% |
GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite stats
GOR Mahia and Mombasa Elite recent form
| GOR Mahia |
WWWLLL |
| Mombasa Elite |
DLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.