Tusker
vs
Posta Rangers FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tusker
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC
| Probability | Tusker | Draw | Posta Rangers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 33.7% | 25.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.0% | 33.7% | 25.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC match preview
Tusker faces Posta Rangers FC in the Kenyan Premier League, with Tusker holding a 42% probability of winning, while Posta Rangers FC stands at 24%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Tusker, with a 15% chance of this outcome. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Tusker recording one win in their last six matches and Posta Rangers FC achieving two wins in their last six.
The expected goals for Tusker are 1.12, compared to 0.78 for Posta Rangers FC, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Tusker. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 30%, and both teams to score sits at 38%. In their last two encounters, Tusker has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Posta Rangers FC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tusker and Posta Rangers FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Tusker and Posta Rangers FC attack and defence ratings
Tusker
Posta Rangers FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 41.0% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Posta Rangers FC | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.8% |
| No | 61.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.8% |
| 1-0 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC stats
Tusker and Posta Rangers FC recent form
| Tusker |
DLWWDD |
| Posta Rangers FC |
WLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Tusker | Posta Rangers FC | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Posta Rangers FC | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.