Mara Sugar
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 24% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mara Sugar vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mara Sugar vs Police
| Probability | Mara Sugar | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.4% | 39.8% | 30.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 29.4% | 39.8% | 30.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mara Sugar vs Police match preview
Mara Sugar faces Police in the Kenyan Premier League with both teams showing inconsistent recent form. Mara Sugar has recorded two draws and a win in their last six matches, while Police has struggled, with six consecutive draws. According to our model, the probabilities for this match show Mara Sugar at 29%, a draw at 40%, and Police at 31%. The expected goals are closely matched, with Mara Sugar at 0.72 and Police at 0.74.
The most likely scoreline predicted is a 0-0 draw, occurring at a rate of 24%. Additionally, the chances of over 2.5 goals are estimated at 18%, and both teams to score stands at 28%. In their last two encounters, Mara Sugar has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Police.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mara Sugar and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.46
Mara Sugar and Police attack and defence ratings
Mara Sugar
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mara Sugar vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mara Sugar | 29.4% |
| Draw | 39.8% | |
| Police | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 18.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 81.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 28.1% |
| No | 71.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 60.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 9.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 69.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 24.4% |
| 0-1 | 16.0% | |
| 1-0 | 15.4% |
Mara Sugar vs Police stats
Mara Sugar and Police recent form
| Mara Sugar |
DWDLDL |
| Police |
DLDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mara Sugar vs Police head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Mara Sugar | Police | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-14 | Police | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.