APS Bomet
vs
Migori Youth
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.89 vs 0.52.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
APS Bomet vs Migori Youth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: APS Bomet vs Migori Youth
| Probability | APS Bomet | Draw | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.4% | 39.3% | 19.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 41.4% | 39.3% | 19.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.89 vs 0.52.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
APS Bomet vs Migori Youth match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match, APS Bomet faces Migori Youth. According to our model, APS Bomet has a 41% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 39% and Migori Youth at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of APS Bomet, with a 21% chance of occurring. The expected goals for APS Bomet are 0.89, compared to 0.52 for Migori Youth, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows APS Bomet with a mixed record of draws and wins, having drawn their last three matches but won two prior. In contrast, Migori Youth has drawn their last two games, suggesting a struggle to secure victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
APS Bomet and Migori Youth expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.41
APS Bomet and Migori Youth attack and defence ratings
APS Bomet
Migori Youth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
APS Bomet vs Migori Youth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 41.4% |
| Draw | 39.3% | |
| Migori Youth | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 25.0% |
| No | 75.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 60.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 15.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 58.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 25.5% |
| 1-0 | 20.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
APS Bomet vs Migori Youth stats
APS Bomet and Migori Youth recent form
| APS Bomet |
DLDDWW |
| Migori Youth |
DD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.