Shabana
vs
Mara Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
Shabana vs Mara Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shabana vs Mara Sugar
| Probability | Shabana | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.8% | 37.8% | 34.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.8% | 37.8% | 34.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Shabana vs Mara Sugar match preview
Shabana faces Mara Sugar in the Kenyan Premier League with a kickoff set for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Shabana has a 28% chance of winning, while Mara Sugar stands at 34%, and a draw is predicted at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, occurring with a probability of 21%. Expected goals for Shabana are 0.74, while Mara Sugar is slightly higher at 0.86.
In terms of recent form, Shabana's last six matches show two wins, two draws, and two losses, while Mara Sugar has one win, two draws, and three losses. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Shabana has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Mara Sugar. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shabana and Mara Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.60
Shabana and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings
Shabana
Mara Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shabana vs Mara Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shabana | 27.8% |
| Draw | 37.8% | |
| Mara Sugar | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 78.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.5% |
| No | 68.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mara Sugar win | 12.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 21.5% |
| 0-1 | 16.0% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Shabana vs Mara Sugar stats
Shabana and Mara Sugar recent form
| Shabana |
WLDWLD |
| Mara Sugar |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shabana vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Mara Sugar | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Shabana | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.