Mathare United
vs
Homeboyz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Homeboyz
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Mathare United vs Homeboyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mathare United vs Homeboyz
| Probability | Mathare United | Draw | Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.4% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mathare United vs Homeboyz match preview
Mathare United faces Homeboyz in a tightly contested matchup, with probabilities indicating a slight edge for Homeboyz at 36%, compared to Mathare United's 30% and a 34% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest a close game, with Mathare United projected at 0.94 and Homeboyz at 1.05. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 13% probability.
In terms of recent form, Mathare United has recorded a mixed bag of results with a sequence of L-D-W-L-W-L, while Homeboyz has struggled, managing only one win in their last six matches with a record of W-D-D-L-L-L. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team has one victory. Both teams to score is estimated at 41%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 32%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mathare United and Homeboyz expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Mathare United and Homeboyz attack and defence ratings
Mathare United
Homeboyz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mathare United vs Homeboyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 30.4% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| Homeboyz | 36.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Homeboyz win | 14.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.0% |
Mathare United vs Homeboyz stats
Mathare United and Homeboyz recent form
| Mathare United |
LDWLWL |
| Homeboyz |
WDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mathare United vs Homeboyz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Homeboyz | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Mathare United | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.