Nairobi United
vs
Mara Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nairobi United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.3% | 32.0% | 27.6% |
| Market | 40.8% | 31.1% | 28.1% |
| Final | 40.7% | 31.3% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 40.7% × 2.21 − 1).
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar match preview
Nairobi United faces Mara Sugar in a Kenyan Premier League matchup on November 14, 2026. According to our model, Nairobi United has a 41% chance of winning, while Mara Sugar stands at 28%, with a 31% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United, with an expected goals tally of 0.98 for them and 0.89 for Mara Sugar.
Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Nairobi United recording one win and four draws in their last five matches, while Mara Sugar has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same span. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 36%, and the chance of both teams scoring is 44%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.88
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 40.7% | 2.46 | -0.1% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 40.7% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Mara Sugar | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 13.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.8% |
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar stats
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar recent form
| Nairobi United |
LDDDWD |
| Mara Sugar |
DDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Mara Sugar | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | Shield Cup | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Mara Sugar | Nairobi United | Super League | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-16 | Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | Super League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 31.0%, away 28.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 2.89 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 2.88 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 2.63 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 2.89 | 3.12 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .