Nairobi United
vs
Mara Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar
| Probability | Nairobi United | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.3% | 35.7% | 25.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.3% | 35.7% | 25.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nairobi United
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar match preview
Nairobi United will host Mara Sugar in the Kenyan Premier League on October 16, 2026. According to our model, Nairobi United has a 38% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 36% and Mara Sugar at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nairobi United, with an expected goals tally of 0.99 for Nairobi United and 0.76 for Mara Sugar.
In terms of recent form, Nairobi United has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Mara Sugar has one win, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows Nairobi United with one win and one draw against Mara Sugar, who has yet to secure a victory in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.75
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 38.3% |
| Draw | 35.7% | |
| Mara Sugar | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.9% |
| No | 65.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.6% |
| 1-0 | 15.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar stats
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar recent form
| Nairobi United |
WDDLWW |
| Mara Sugar |
LDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Nairobi United | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-01 | Mara Sugar | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.