Mara Sugar
vs
Migori Youth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 26% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth
| Probability | Mara Sugar | Draw | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.2% | 40.8% | 26.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.2% | 40.8% | 26.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth match preview
Mara Sugar will face Migori Youth in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Mara Sugar has a 32% chance of winning, while Migori Youth's chances stand at 27%. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, which has a probability of 26%. Both teams have struggled to find the back of the net, with expected goals of 0.74 for Mara Sugar and 0.65 for Migori Youth.
In terms of recent form, Mara Sugar has recorded two draws followed by a win, two draws, and a loss, while Migori Youth has drawn their last three matches. The probability of over 2.5 goals is low at 16%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is 26%. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mara Sugar and Migori Youth expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.39
Mara Sugar and Migori Youth attack and defence ratings
Mara Sugar
Migori Youth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.8% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mara Sugar | 32.2% |
| Draw | 40.8% | |
| Migori Youth | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 16.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 83.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.2% |
| No | 73.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 59.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mara Sugar win | 10.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 67.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 26.1% |
| 1-0 | 17.2% | |
| 0-1 | 15.0% |
Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth stats
Mara Sugar and Migori Youth recent form
| Mara Sugar |
DDWDLD |
| Migori Youth |
DDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.