KCB
vs
APS Bomet
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
KCB vs APS Bomet overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KCB vs APS Bomet
| Probability | KCB | Draw | APS Bomet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.4% | 32.1% | 47.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.4% | 32.1% | 47.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.73.
KCB vs APS Bomet match preview
KCB faces APS Bomet in a Kenyan Premier League matchup on November 6, 2026. According to our model, KCB has a 20% chance of winning, while APS Bomet is favored with a 48% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 16% likelihood. KCB's expected goals stand at 0.73, compared to APS Bomet's 1.25, indicating a potential struggle for KCB to find the net.
In terms of recent form, KCB has shown resilience with a record of W-L-W-D-W-W, whereas APS Bomet has a mixed performance with W-D-L-D-D-W. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters shows KCB and APS Bomet each securing one win. The model suggests a 32% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 38% probability for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KCB and APS Bomet expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
KCB and APS Bomet attack and defence ratings
KCB
APS Bomet
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
KCB vs APS Bomet markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCB | 20.4% |
| Draw | 32.1% | |
| APS Bomet | 47.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.2% |
| No | 61.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 52.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.0% |
| 0-0 | 15.0% | |
| 1-1 | 13.9% |
KCB vs APS Bomet stats
KCB vs APS Bomet head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | APS Bomet | KCB | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-16 | KCB | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.