Mathare United
vs
Posta Rangers FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mathare United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.76.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC
| Probability | Mathare United | Draw | Posta Rangers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 34.0% | 23.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.4% | 34.0% | 23.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mathare United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.76.
Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC match preview
Mathare United faces Posta Rangers FC in a Kenyan Premier League match on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Mathare United has a 42% probability of winning, while Posta Rangers FC sits at 24%, with a 34% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Mathare United, which has a 16% likelihood. Expected goals are 1.11 for Mathare United and 0.76 for Posta Rangers FC.
In terms of recent form, Mathare United has recorded a win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Posta Rangers FC has two wins, one draw, and three losses. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Mathare United has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Posta Rangers FC. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.87
Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC attack and defence ratings
Mathare United
Posta Rangers FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.6% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mathare United | 42.4% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Posta Rangers FC | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mathare United win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 57.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.7% |
| 1-0 | 15.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC stats
Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC recent form
| Mathare United |
WDLDWL |
| Posta Rangers FC |
DWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Posta Rangers FC | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Mathare United | Posta Rangers FC | Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.