Ulinzi Stars
vs
Mathare United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.7% | 37.1% | 31.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.7% | 37.1% | 31.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United match preview
Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for November 2, 2026. According to our model, Ulinzi Stars have a 32% chance of winning, while Mathare United stands at 31%, and a draw is slightly favored at 37%. The expected goals for both teams are closely matched, with Ulinzi Stars at 0.84 and Mathare United at 0.83. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, which has a probability of 20%.
In terms of recent form, Ulinzi Stars have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Mathare United has two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters shows each team with one victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.67
Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Mathare United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 37.1% | 2.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 31.7% |
| Draw | 37.1% | |
| Mathare United | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.3% |
| No | 66.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 11.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 68.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.2% |
| 1-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United stats
Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
LDDLWW |
| Mathare United |
WDLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Ulinzi Stars | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Mathare United | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.