AFC Leopards
vs
Homeboyz
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Leopards
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz
| Probability | AFC Leopards | Draw | Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 36.0% | 24.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.9% | 36.0% | 24.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz match preview
AFC Leopards will host Homeboyz in the Kenyan Premier League on November 1, 2026. According to our model, AFC Leopards has a 40% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 36% and Homeboyz at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of AFC Leopards, with an expected goals tally of 1.00 for them and 0.71 for Homeboyz.
In terms of recent form, AFC Leopards has recorded two draws and one win in their last five matches, while Homeboyz has one win and two draws in the same period. The head-to-head record shows each team has won once in their last two encounters. Overall, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Leopards and Homeboyz expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.71
AFC Leopards and Homeboyz attack and defence ratings
AFC Leopards
Homeboyz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 39.9% | 2.50 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.1% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 39.9% |
| Draw | 36.0% | |
| Homeboyz | 24.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.4% |
| No | 66.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 60.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.4% |
| 1-0 | 16.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz stats
AFC Leopards and Homeboyz recent form
| AFC Leopards |
DDWDLL |
| Homeboyz |
LDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Homeboyz | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-04 | AFC Leopards | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | AFC Leopards | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-07 | Homeboyz | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Homeboyz | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-17 | AFC Leopards | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-20 | Homeboyz | AFC Leopards | Shield Cup | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Homeboyz | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2022-12-21 | AFC Leopards | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.