Homeboyz
vs
GOR Mahia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Homeboyz
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia
| Probability | Homeboyz | Draw | GOR Mahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.1% | 30.1% | 32.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.1% | 30.1% | 32.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia match preview
Homeboyz and GOR Mahia are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Homeboyz has a 37% chance of winning, while GOR Mahia sits at 33%, and a draw is predicted at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Homeboyz, with a 10% probability. Expected goals for the match are 1.25 for Homeboyz and 1.17 for GOR Mahia, indicating a closely contested game.
In terms of recent form, Homeboyz has recorded a series of results with D-W-D-D-L-L, while GOR Mahia has fared slightly better with W-W-L-L-L-D. Historically, GOR Mahia has dominated their last two encounters, winning both matches against Homeboyz. The model suggests a 44% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Homeboyz and GOR Mahia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Homeboyz and GOR Mahia attack and defence ratings
Homeboyz
GOR Mahia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 37.1% | 2.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 37.1% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| GOR Mahia | 32.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.5% |
| No | 49.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Homeboyz win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.2% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia stats
Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Homeboyz | GOR Mahia | Kenyan Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-17 | GOR Mahia | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.