Homeboyz
vs
Ulinzi Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ulinzi Stars
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars
| Probability | Homeboyz | Draw | Ulinzi Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 31.7% | 34.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.0% | 31.7% | 34.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ulinzi Stars
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars match preview
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars are set to face off in a closely contested match in the Kenyan Premier League. According to our model, both teams have an equal probability of winning at 34%, with a 32% chance of a draw. The expected goals are marginally in favor of Ulinzi Stars at 1.11 compared to Homeboyz's 1.10. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Homeboyz has struggled with a record of W-D-D-L-L-L, while Ulinzi Stars has shown better performance with L-W-W-W-L-D. The head-to-head record favors Homeboyz with 1 win and 1 draw in their last two encounters against Ulinzi Stars, who have yet to secure a victory. The chances of both teams scoring stand at 46%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals is at 38%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars attack and defence ratings
Homeboyz
Ulinzi Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 34.3% | 2.92 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 34.0% |
| Draw | 31.7% | |
| Ulinzi Stars | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 14.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 65.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars stats
Homeboyz and Ulinzi Stars recent form
| Homeboyz |
WDDLLL |
| Ulinzi Stars |
LWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Homeboyz vs Ulinzi Stars head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Homeboyz | Ulinzi Stars | Shield Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Ulinzi Stars | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Homeboyz | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Ulinzi Stars | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Homeboyz | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Homeboyz | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-26 | Ulinzi Stars | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-08 | Ulinzi Stars | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-11 | Homeboyz | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.