Ulinzi Stars
vs
Tusker
0 – 2 Full time
| 68′ | Alvo | ||
| 75′ | V. Mbaoma |
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Tusker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 34.5% | 25.2% |
| Market | 20.2% | 33.4% | 46.4% |
| Final | 25.2% | 33.7% | 41.1% |
| Edge | +5.0% | +0.3% | -5.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.85
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Tusker
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker: result vs prediction
Ulinzi Stars 0 – 2 Tusker
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 41.1% | 2.43 | -5.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 25.2% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Tusker | 41.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.9% |
| No | 63.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 8.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 74.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker stats
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
WWWLDW |
| Tusker |
WDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | Shield Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-05 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | FKF Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-23 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | FKF Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-01 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-20 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | Shield Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-16 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | FKF Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-25 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.2%, draw 33.4%, away 46.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.56 | 2.67 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 2.90 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 2.63 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.35 | 2.67 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 2.80 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 4.70 | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 4.40 | 2.67 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 4.59 | 2.61 | 1.91 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 2.62 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .