Ulinzi Stars
vs
Tusker
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tusker
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Tusker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.3% | 34.6% | 25.2% |
| Market | 20.8% | 31.1% | 48.0% |
| Final | 25.7% | 32.0% | 42.3% |
| Edge | +19.4% | +3.4% | -22.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker match preview
Ulinzi Stars face Tusker in an intriguing Kenyan Premier League matchup. Ulinzi Stars have shown strong recent form with three wins in their last five matches, while Tusker's form has been more inconsistent, with two wins and three draws in the same period. According to our model, Ulinzi Stars have a 26% probability of winning, while Tusker is favored at 42%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Tusker, with expected goals of 1.06 for Ulinzi Stars and 0.78 for Tusker.
In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one victory. The probability of a draw stands at 32%. Additionally, our model indicates a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.85
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Tusker
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 42.3% | 2.36 | -22.9% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 25.7% |
| Draw | 32.0% | |
| Tusker | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.8% |
| No | 63.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 8.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.9% | |
| Loss | 74.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.1% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker stats
Ulinzi Stars and Tusker recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
WWWLDW |
| Tusker |
WDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | Ulinzi Stars | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Tusker | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.8%, draw 31.1%, away 48.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.56 | 3.00 | 1.86 |
| Bet365 | 4.33 | 2.90 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 2.90 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 2.90 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 4.50 | 3.05 | 1.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .