GOR Mahia
vs
Murang'a SEAL
Garuda Lions Prediction: Murang'a SEAL
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL
| Probability | GOR Mahia | Draw | Murang'a SEAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.1% | 29.3% | 39.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.1% | 29.3% | 39.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Murang'a SEAL
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL match preview
GOR Mahia faces Murang'a SEAL in what promises to be a competitive matchup in the Kenyan Premier League. According to our model, GOR Mahia has a 31% probability of winning, while Murang'a SEAL leads with a 40% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 10% probability, with expected goals of 1.17 for GOR Mahia and 1.35 for Murang'a SEAL.
Recent form shows GOR Mahia struggling with three consecutive losses, followed by two draws, while Murang'a SEAL has alternated between wins and losses, most recently winning two out of their last three matches. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 52%, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL attack and defence ratings
GOR Mahia
Murang'a SEAL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Murang'a SEAL | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GOR Mahia | 31.1% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Murang'a SEAL | 39.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Murang'a SEAL win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.3% |
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL stats
GOR Mahia and Murang'a SEAL recent form
| GOR Mahia |
LLLDWD |
| Murang'a SEAL |
WWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Murang'a SEAL | GOR Mahia | Kenyan Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2026-01-14 | GOR Mahia | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2025-05-25 | GOR Mahia | Murang'a SEAL | Shield Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Murang'a SEAL | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | GOR Mahia | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-04 | Murang'a SEAL | GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2023-11-11 | GOR Mahia | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.