Ulinzi Stars
vs
Mara Sugar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar
| Probability | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.2% | 33.7% | 33.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar match preview
Ulinzi Stars will face Mara Sugar in an evenly matched encounter, with both teams having a 33% probability of winning according to our model. The likelihood of a draw stands at 34%, indicating a competitive fixture. The most probable scoreline is a 0-0 draw, which aligns with the expected goals for both teams, each at 0.99.
In terms of recent form, Ulinzi Stars has recorded a mixed bag of results with a draw, followed by two wins and a loss, while Mara Sugar has shown some resilience with a win, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Notably, in their last two head-to-head encounters, Mara Sugar has emerged victorious on both occasions, suggesting a psychological edge going into this match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.98
Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar attack and defence ratings
Ulinzi Stars
Mara Sugar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 33.7% | 2.97 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 33.2% |
| Draw | 33.7% | |
| Mara Sugar | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 1-0 | 12.3% |
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar stats
Ulinzi Stars and Mara Sugar recent form
| Ulinzi Stars |
DLWWWL |
| Mara Sugar |
WDLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ulinzi Stars vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Mara Sugar | Ulinzi Stars | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Ulinzi Stars | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-04 | Mara Sugar | Ulinzi Stars | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-12 | Ulinzi Stars | Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.