AFC Leopards
vs
Shabana
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Leopards
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.72.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
AFC Leopards vs Shabana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Leopards vs Shabana
| Probability | AFC Leopards | Draw | Shabana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.2% | 34.8% | 23.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.2% | 34.8% | 23.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AFC Leopards
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.07 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
AFC Leopards vs Shabana match preview
AFC Leopards will face Shabana in the Kenyan Premier League on October 25, 2026. According to our model, AFC Leopards has a 42% probability of winning, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 35%, and Shabana at 23%. The expected goals for AFC Leopards is 1.07, compared to Shabana's 0.72, indicating a stronger offensive outlook for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 17% probability.
In terms of recent form, AFC Leopards has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Shabana's recent performances include two wins, two draws, and one loss. Historically, AFC Leopards has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Shabana. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Leopards and Shabana expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
AFC Leopards and Shabana attack and defence ratings
AFC Leopards
Shabana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Leopards vs Shabana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 42.2% |
| Draw | 34.8% | |
| Shabana | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.2% |
| No | 64.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.9% |
| 1-0 | 16.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
AFC Leopards vs Shabana stats
AFC Leopards and Shabana recent form
| AFC Leopards |
WDLLWW |
| Shabana |
DWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Leopards vs Shabana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | AFC Leopards | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League | 5-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Shabana | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.