Migori Youth
vs
Mathare United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Migori Youth
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Migori Youth vs Mathare United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Migori Youth vs Mathare United
| Probability | Migori Youth | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.2% | 34.4% | 28.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.2% | 34.4% | 28.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Migori Youth vs Mathare United match preview
Migori Youth will face Mathare United in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Migori Youth has a 37% probability of winning, while Mathare United stands at 28%, and the likelihood of a draw is 34%. The expected goals for Migori Youth is 1.03, compared to Mathare United's 0.87, suggesting a tight contest. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Migori Youth, occurring with a 14% probability.
In terms of recent form, Migori Youth has drawn their latest match, while Mathare United's recent results show a loss followed by a draw, a win, and two additional losses. Over the last two encounters between these teams, Migori Youth has not secured a win, with one draw and one victory for Mathare United. The model indicates a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Migori Youth and Mathare United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.90
Migori Youth and Mathare United attack and defence ratings
Migori Youth
Mathare United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Migori Youth vs Mathare United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 37.2% | 2.69 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 37.2% |
| Draw | 34.4% | |
| Mathare United | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Migori Youth win | 15.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 14.1% |
Migori Youth vs Mathare United stats
Migori Youth and Mathare United recent form
| Migori Youth |
D |
| Mathare United |
LDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.
Migori Youth vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Mathare United | Migori Youth | Super League | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Migori Youth | Mathare United | Super League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.