Mombasa Elite
vs
Police
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mombasa Elite vs Police overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mombasa Elite vs Police
| Probability | Mombasa Elite | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.1% | 32.9% | 41.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.1% | 32.9% | 41.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Mombasa Elite vs Police match preview
Mombasa Elite will face Police in the Kenyan Premier League on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Mombasa Elite has a 26% probability of winning, while Police has a 41% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Police, with a 14% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Mombasa Elite recording two losses followed by a win, while Police has struggled with six games without a win, including five draws.
In terms of expected goals, Mombasa Elite is projected to score 0.87, whereas Police is expected to net 1.15. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 33%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 41%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mombasa Elite and Police expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
Mombasa Elite and Police attack and defence ratings
Mombasa Elite
Police
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mombasa Elite vs Police markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mombasa Elite | 26.1% |
| Draw | 32.9% | |
| Police | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.9% |
| No | 59.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 18.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.6% |
| 1-1 | 14.6% | |
| 0-1 | 14.0% |
Mombasa Elite vs Police stats
Mombasa Elite and Police recent form
| Mombasa Elite |
LLW |
| Police |
LDDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.