KCB
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: KCB
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
KCB vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: KCB vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | KCB | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.4% | 29.3% | 26.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why KCB
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
KCB vs Mombasa Elite match preview
KCB faces Mombasa Elite in the Kenyan Premier League with a kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, KCB holds a 44% probability of winning, while Mombasa Elite has a 26% chance, and a draw stands at 29%. The expected goals for KCB is 1.41 compared to Mombasa Elite's 1.03, suggesting a slight edge for KCB in offensive potential. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of KCB.
In terms of recent form, KCB has recorded a W-D-W-W-L-D streak, while Mombasa Elite has struggled with L-L-W in their last three matches. Additionally, there is a 50% probability that both teams will score, and a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
KCB and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
KCB and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
KCB
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
KCB vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCB | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | KCB | 44.4% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 26.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | KCB win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.0% |
KCB vs Mombasa Elite stats
KCB and Mombasa Elite recent form
| KCB |
WDWWLD |
| Mombasa Elite |
LLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.