Mara Sugar
vs
AFC Leopards
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Leopards
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards
| Probability | Mara Sugar | Draw | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.4% | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.4% | 32.3% | 34.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AFC Leopards
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards match preview
Mara Sugar faces AFC Leopards in a closely contested match, with probabilities suggesting a slight edge for AFC Leopards at 34% compared to Mara Sugar's 33% and a 32% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Mara Sugar recording a W-D-L-D-L-W streak and AFC Leopards achieving W-D-L-L-W-W.
In terms of expected goals, Mara Sugar is projected to score 1.06, while AFC Leopards is slightly ahead at 1.08. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 36%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 45%. The recent head-to-head results show each team with one win in their last two encounters, indicating a balanced rivalry. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mara Sugar and AFC Leopards expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.14
Mara Sugar and AFC Leopards attack and defence ratings
Mara Sugar
AFC Leopards
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mara Sugar | 33.4% |
| Draw | 32.3% | |
| AFC Leopards | 34.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.6% |
| No | 55.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win | 14.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 65.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-1 | 11.3% |
Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards stats
Mara Sugar and AFC Leopards recent form
| Mara Sugar |
WDLDLW |
| AFC Leopards |
WDLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | AFC Leopards | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Mara Sugar | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.