Police
vs
AFC Leopards
Garuda Lions Prediction: Police
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Police vs AFC Leopards overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Police vs AFC Leopards
| Probability | Police | Draw | AFC Leopards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.5% | 34.5% | 25.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.5% | 34.5% | 25.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Police vs AFC Leopards match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match, Police face AFC Leopards with a kickoff scheduled for October 20, 2026. According to our model, Police have a 40% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 34% and AFC Leopards at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Police, with an expected goals tally of 1.07 for Police and 0.78 for AFC Leopards.
Recent form shows Police struggling with five consecutive draws, while AFC Leopards have mixed results, including two losses and two wins in their last five matches. In their last two encounters, Police have secured one win and one draw against AFC Leopards, who have yet to win in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Police and AFC Leopards expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.85
Police and AFC Leopards attack and defence ratings
Police
AFC Leopards
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Police vs AFC Leopards markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Police | 40.5% |
| Draw | 34.5% | |
| AFC Leopards | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.0% |
| No | 63.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.0% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Police vs AFC Leopards stats
Police and AFC Leopards recent form
| Police |
DDDDDW |
| AFC Leopards |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Police vs AFC Leopards head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | AFC Leopards | Police | Kenyan Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Police | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.