Shabana
vs
Nairobi United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nairobi United
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Shabana vs Nairobi United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shabana vs Nairobi United
| Probability | Shabana | Draw | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.6% | 32.8% | 42.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.6% | 32.8% | 42.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nairobi United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.83.
Shabana vs Nairobi United match preview
Shabana faces Nairobi United in the Kenyan Premier League with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Shabana has a 25% chance of winning, while Nairobi United holds a 42% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 15% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Shabana will score 0.83, while Nairobi United is projected to net 1.17.
Recent form shows Shabana with a record of W-L-D-W-L-D, while Nairobi United has D-W-D-D-L-W. In their last two encounters, Shabana has not secured any wins or draws against Nairobi United, who has won both matches. The model indicates a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shabana and Nairobi United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Shabana and Nairobi United attack and defence ratings
Shabana
Nairobi United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shabana vs Nairobi United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 42.5% | 2.35 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shabana | 24.6% |
| Draw | 32.8% | |
| Nairobi United | 42.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win | 18.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.8% |
| 0-1 | 14.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Shabana vs Nairobi United stats
Shabana and Nairobi United recent form
| Shabana |
WLDWLD |
| Nairobi United |
DWDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shabana vs Nairobi United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Nairobi United | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-01-04 | Shabana | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.