APS Bomet
vs
Murang'a SEAL
Garuda Lions Prediction: APS Bomet
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL
| Probability | APS Bomet | Draw | Murang'a SEAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 23.2% | 14.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.9% | 23.2% | 14.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why APS Bomet
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.86.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL match preview
In the upcoming Kenyan Premier League match, APS Bomet faces Murang'a SEAL with a kickoff scheduled for November 1, 2026. According to our model, APS Bomet has a 62% probability of winning, while Murang'a SEAL has a 15% chance, and a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals for APS Bomet are 1.95 compared to 0.86 for Murang'a SEAL, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability.
Recent form indicates that APS Bomet has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Murang'a SEAL has had three wins and two losses in the same period. Notably, in their last two head-to-head encounters, Murang'a SEAL has won both matches against APS Bomet. The model also suggests a 53% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL attack and defence ratings
APS Bomet
Murang'a SEAL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 61.9% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| Murang'a SEAL | 14.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win | 38.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 11.1% | |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL stats
APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL recent form
| APS Bomet |
WDLDDW |
| Murang'a SEAL |
WLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Murang'a SEAL | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | APS Bomet | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2022-07-24 | APS Bomet | Murang'a SEAL | Super League | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-05 | Murang'a SEAL | APS Bomet | Super League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.