AFC Leopards
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: AFC Leopards
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — AFC Leopards is the favourite, not a value bet.
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | AFC Leopards | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 32.3% | 30.7% |
| Market | 65.4% | 24.0% | 10.7% |
| Final | 58.3% | 26.0% | 15.7% |
| Edge | -7.1% | +2.1% | +5.0% |
Why AFC Leopards
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.67.
Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.4% per unit staked (our 58.3% × 1.40 − 1).
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite match preview
AFC Leopards are favored to win against Mombasa Elite with a 58% probability, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 26% and Mombasa Elite at 16%. The most probable scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.18 for AFC Leopards and 0.67 for Mombasa Elite.
In terms of recent form, AFC Leopards have recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Mombasa Elite has one win, two losses, and two draws in the same period. The model indicates a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance that both teams will score in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.85
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
AFC Leopards
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 58.3% | 1.72 | -7.1% | 1.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 58.3% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 15.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.2% |
| No | 55.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.7% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.0% |
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite stats
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite recent form
| AFC Leopards |
DDWDLL |
| Mombasa Elite |
LDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.4%, draw 24.0%, away 10.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 3.74 | 8.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 3.75 | 7.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 3.74 | 8.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .