AFC Leopards
vs
Mombasa Elite
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mombasa Elite
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite
| Probability | AFC Leopards | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 29.0% | 36.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.7% | 29.0% | 36.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite match preview
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite are set to clash in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 16, 2026. According to our model, AFC Leopards have a 35% probability of winning, while Mombasa Elite stands at 36%, with a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of Mombasa Elite, which has a 9% probability. Expected goals are closely matched, with AFC Leopards at 1.28 and Mombasa Elite at 1.31.
Recent form shows AFC Leopards with a mixed record of L-L-W-W-W-L, while Mombasa Elite comes into the match with a win. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 48%, and both teams to score is at 54%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite attack and defence ratings
AFC Leopards
Mombasa Elite
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mombasa Elite | 36.3% | 2.76 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 34.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Mombasa Elite | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mombasa Elite win | 16.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 63.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | |
| 0-1 | 8.6% |
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite stats
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite recent form
| AFC Leopards |
LLWWWL |
| Mombasa Elite |
W |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.