Tusker
vs
Shabana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw
0 – 0 Predicted score · 22% model probability
Tusker vs Shabana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tusker vs Shabana
| Probability | Tusker | Draw | Shabana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.1% | 37.9% | 24.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.1% | 37.9% | 24.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Tusker vs Shabana match preview
Tusker and Shabana are set to face off in the Kenyan Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for October 16, 2026. According to our model, Tusker has a 37% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 38%, and Shabana has a 25% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, with a 22% likelihood. Expected goals for Tusker are 0.89, compared to Shabana's 0.68.
In terms of recent form, Tusker has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Shabana's recent performance includes one win, two draws, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows Tusker has yet to secure a win against Shabana, with one draw and one loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tusker and Shabana expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.57
Tusker and Shabana attack and defence ratings
Tusker
Shabana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tusker vs Shabana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 37.9% | 2.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 69.7% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 37.1% |
| Draw | 37.9% | |
| Shabana | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 79.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30.3% |
| No | 69.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 22.1% |
| 1-0 | 17.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Tusker vs Shabana stats
Tusker vs Shabana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Shabana | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tusker | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.