Tusker
vs
Shabana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tusker
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tusker vs Shabana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tusker vs Shabana
| Probability | Tusker | Draw | Shabana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.4% | 37.8% | 22.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.4% | 37.8% | 22.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tusker
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Tusker vs Shabana match preview
Tusker faces Shabana in a Kenyan Premier League matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 15, 2026. According to our model, Tusker has a 39% chance of winning, while a draw is estimated at 38% and Shabana at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Tusker, with an 18% probability. Expected goals for Tusker stand at 0.69, slightly ahead of Shabana's 0.65.
In terms of recent form, Tusker has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Shabana has three draws, one win, and one loss. Historically, in their last six encounters, Tusker has secured one win, with Shabana winning three times and two matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tusker and Shabana expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.34
Tusker and Shabana attack and defence ratings
Tusker
Shabana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tusker vs Shabana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 39.4% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 39.4% |
| Draw | 37.8% | |
| Shabana | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 79.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29.5% |
| No | 70.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 62.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win | 9.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 69.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 22.3% |
| 1-0 | 18.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Tusker vs Shabana stats
Tusker vs Shabana head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Shabana | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Tusker | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-26 | Tusker | Shabana | FKF Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Shabana | Tusker | FKF Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-11 | Shabana | Tusker | FKF Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2023-10-06 | Tusker | Shabana | FKF Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.