Buducnost Podgorica
vs
Arsenal Tivat
Garuda Lions Prediction: Buducnost Podgorica
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat
| Probability | Buducnost Podgorica | Draw | Arsenal Tivat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.3% | 24.1% | 8.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.3% | 24.1% | 8.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Buducnost Podgorica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.46.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat match preview
Buducnost Podgorica enters the match against Arsenal Tivat with a strong probability of winning at 67%. Their recent form shows a mix of results, including three wins in their last six matches. The expected goals for Buducnost Podgorica stand at 1.72, indicating a solid offensive capability, while Arsenal Tivat is projected to score only 0.46 goals, reflecting their struggles, particularly with five losses in their last six games.
Historically, Buducnost Podgorica has faced Arsenal Tivat five times, securing one win, one draw, and three losses. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 18% chance of occurring. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are at 37% and 31%, respectively, suggesting a tendency towards a low-scoring affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat attack and defence ratings
Buducnost Podgorica
Arsenal Tivat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 67.3% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Buducnost Podgorica win | 40.0% | 2.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 67.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Arsenal Tivat | 8.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.4% |
| No | 68.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Buducnost Podgorica win | 40.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.3% | |
| Loss | 32.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.5% |
| 2-0 | 16.6% | |
| 0-0 | 12.2% |
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat stats
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat recent form
| Buducnost Podgorica |
DWWWLD |
| Arsenal Tivat |
LLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Buducnost Podgorica and Arsenal Tivat season so far
Buducnost Podgorica record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arsenal Tivat record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
Buducnost Podgorica vs Arsenal Tivat head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Arsenal Tivat | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Buducnost Podgorica | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League | 0-2 |
| 2026-02-25 | Arsenal Tivat | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Buducnost Podgorica | Arsenal Tivat | Montenegro First League | 4-2 |
| 2025-08-18 | Arsenal Tivat | Buducnost Podgorica | Montenegro First League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.