Moss
vs
Egersund
Garuda Lions Prediction: Moss
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Moss vs Egersund overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Moss vs Egersund
| Probability | Moss | Draw | Egersund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 22.5% | 29.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.6% | 22.5% | 29.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Moss
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Moss vs Egersund match preview
Moss faces Egersund in the Norway 1. Division with a kickoff scheduled for October 14, 2026. According to our model, Moss has a 48% probability of winning, while Egersund stands at 30%, and a draw is at 22%. The expected goals suggest Moss will score 2.12 and Egersund 1.66, indicating a likely scoreline of 2-1, which has an 8% probability. There is also a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Moss has recorded one win in their last six matches, with a sequence of L-D-W-L-W-L. Egersund, on the other hand, has a slightly better run, having drawn three of their last six games, with two wins and one loss. Notably, in their last three head-to-head encounters, Egersund has won all matches against Moss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Moss and Egersund expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.78
Moss and Egersund attack and defence ratings
Moss
Egersund
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Moss vs Egersund markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 47.6% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Egersund | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.1% |
| No | 27.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Moss win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.1% |
Moss vs Egersund stats
Moss and Egersund recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Moss and Egersund season so far
Moss record
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Egersund record
- They have won 8 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Moss vs Egersund head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Egersund | Moss | Norway 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Egersund | Moss | Norway 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Moss | Egersund | Norway 1. Division | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.