Motor Lublin
vs
Legia Warszawa
3 – 0 Full time
| 3′ | K. Czubak | ||
| 40′ | Fabio Ronaldo | ||
| 56′ | M. AikoM. Ndiaye | ||
| 56′ | R. AdamskiJ. Kuchta | ||
| 63′ | I. Rodrigues | ||
| 67′ | K. ChodynaA. Reca | ||
| 67′ | D. SzymanskiM. Sevcik | ||
| 71′ | Fabio RonaldoT. Santos | ||
| 83′ | W. UrbanskiM. Szczepaniak | ||
| 83′ | R. DezielM. Rajovic | ||
| 85′ | B. BereszynskiKikis | ||
| 85′ | K. CzubakY. Bourhane | ||
| 85′ | I. RodriguesM. Bartos | ||
| 90′ | M. Ndiaye |
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa
| Probability | Motor Lublin | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.5% | 22.8% | 64.7% |
| Market | 21.2% | 24.3% | 54.5% |
| Final | 19.0% | 23.9% | 57.1% |
| Edge | -8.7% | -1.5% | +10.1% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Motor Lublin
Legia Warszawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa: result vs prediction
Motor Lublin 3 – 0 Legia Warszawa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
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- Podhale Nowy Targ v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page
- Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce
- Wisła Płock II v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page
- Chemik Bydgoszcz vs Piast Gliwice — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats
- Polonia Środa vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Before and after this match
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 57.1% | 1.75 | +10.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 39.9% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 19.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Legia Warszawa | 57.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 39.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 35.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 12.3% | |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa stats
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa recent form
| Motor Lublin |
LDWLLD |
| Legia Warszawa |
DDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Legia Warszawa | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 4-0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Motor Lublin | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-10 | Motor Lublin | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 3-3 |
| 2024-09-01 | Legia Warszawa | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 5-2 |
| 2022-12-10 | Legia Warszawa | Motor Lublin | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
| 2022-07-01 | Legia Warszawa | Motor Lublin | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2021-12-01 | Motor Lublin | Legia Warszawa | Cup | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 24.3%, away 54.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.33 | 3.55 | 1.64 |
| 1xBet | 4.57 | 3.78 | 1.62 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.65 |
| BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 4.50 | 3.78 | 1.60 |
| Pinnacle | 4.16 | 3.96 | 1.67 |
| SBO | 3.98 | 3.37 | 1.58 |
| Superbet | 4.00 | 3.45 | 1.82 |
| Unibet | 4.00 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .