Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Alcains
vs
Sertanense
1 – 0 Full time
Alcains
43%
Draw
26%
Sertanense
31%
Alcains vs Sertanense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcains vs Sertanense
| Probability | Alcains | Draw | Sertanense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.3% | 25.7% | 30.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.3% | 25.7% | 30.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Alcains and Sertanense expected goals
Alcains
1.71
Sertanense
1.42
Total expected goals: 3.13
Alcains and Sertanense attack and defence ratings
Alcains
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Sertanense
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alcains vs Sertanense: result vs prediction
Alcains 1 – 0 Sertanense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Alcains vs Sertanense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcains | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.7% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcains | 43.3% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Sertanense | 30.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alcains win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 56.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Alcains vs Sertanense stats
Alcains and Sertanense recent form
| Alcains |
no matches on record |
| Sertanense |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 0 completed matches.