Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal

0 – 2 Full time

36′M. T. Gbadamosi
43′C. Djalo
Alcains 45%
Draw 27%
Vitoria Setubal 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlcainsDrawVitoria Setubal
Model44.7%26.9%28.3%
Market———
Final44.7%26.9%28.3%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Alcains

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.26.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alcains ↓ / Vitoria Setuba → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 13% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Alcains and Vitoria Setubal expected goals

Alcains 1.63
Vitoria Setubal 1.26

Total expected goals: 2.89

Alcains and Vitoria Setubal attack and defence ratings

Alcains

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Vitoria Setubal

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal: result vs prediction

Alcains 0 – 2 Vitoria Setubal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alcains 44.7% 2.24 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.0% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.8% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.2% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alcains44.7%
Draw26.9%
Vitoria Setubal28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%
Both teams to scoreYes57.8%
No42.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)55.3%
Handicap -1Alcains win23.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss55.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
2-19.3%
1-08.2%

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal stats

Alcains and Vitoria Setubal recent form

newest first
Alcains W
Vitoria Setubal no matches on record

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Alcains vs Vitoria Setubal odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.