Vitoria Setubal
vs
UD da Serra
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vitoria Setubal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra
| Probability | Vitoria Setubal | Draw | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 24.0% | 35.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.8% | 24.0% | 35.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra match preview
Vitoria Setubal faces UD da Serra in the Taça de Portugal on October 18, 2026. The model gives Vitoria Setubal a 41% chance of winning, while UD da Serra has a 35% probability, and a draw stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Vitoria Setubal, with an 8% likelihood. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at a rate of 68%, and both teams scoring has a probability of 69%.
In terms of recent form, Vitoria Setubal has secured a win in their latest match, while UD da Serra has recorded two wins followed by one loss. Expected goals are calculated at 1.83 for Vitoria Setubal and 1.69 for UD da Serra, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for these probabilities is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra attack and defence ratings
Vitoria Setubal
UD da Serra
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria Setubal | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitoria Setubal | 40.8% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| UD da Serra | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% |
| No | 30.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vitoria Setubal win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 59.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra stats
Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra recent form
| Vitoria Setubal |
W |
| UD da Serra |
WWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.