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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra

1 – 1 Full time

37′M. Pereira
41′A. Gomes
46′J. DelgadoB. dos Santos
46′F. PalaR. Geraldo
47′Mani
62′G. TeixeiraZe Mario
62′Ze Mario
66′T. F. Justino G.J. Costa
66′W. CostaVieirinha
73′J. Costa
81′I. NabaisD. Gameiro
87′I. AlvesE. Frazier
90′T. Piedade
91′P. FaustinoT. F. Justino G.
95′C. AmaralU. Lima
95′C. DjaloChima
97′ManiCuca
101′E. Frazier
105′G. Isaias
106′R. Geraldo
118′B. Castro
119′G. IsaiasG. Ribeiro
120′M. Pereira
120′R. Rodrigues
120′A. Gomes
120′T. Piedade
120′D. Gameiro
120′F. N. Ferreira
Vitoria Setubal 41%
Draw 24%
UD da Serra 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVitoria SetubalDrawUD da Serra
Model41.0%24.1%35.0%
Market———
Final41.0%24.1%35.0%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vitoria Setuba ↓ / UD da Serra → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra expected goals

Vitoria Setubal 1.82
UD da Serra 1.68

Total expected goals: 3.50

Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra attack and defence ratings

Vitoria Setubal

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.83 -17%

UD da Serra

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra: result vs prediction

Vitoria Setubal 1 – 1 UD da Serra

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vitoria Setubal 41.0% 2.44 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.9% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.1% 1.45 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.0% 1.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vitoria Setubal41.0%
Draw24.1%
UD da Serra35.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.9%
Under 2.532.1%
Both teams to scoreYes69.1%
No30.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.0%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)59.0%
Handicap -1Vitoria Setubal win22.4%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss59.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-18.4%
1-27.7%

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra stats

Vitoria Setubal and UD da Serra recent form

newest first
Vitoria Setubal W
UD da Serra WWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Vitoria Setubal vs UD da Serra odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.