Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 128
Amora
vs
UD da Serra
3 – 4 Full time
| 4′ | E. Furtado | ||
| 8′ | UD da Serra | ||
| 35′ | Amora | ||
| 70′ | UD da Serra | ||
| 82′ | Amora | ||
| 90′ | UD da Serra | ||
| 90′ | UD da Serra |
Amora
28%
Draw
26%
UD da Serra
45%
Amora vs UD da Serra overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amora vs UD da Serra
| Probability | Amora | Draw | UD da Serra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 26.5% | 45.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.1% | 26.5% | 45.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why UD da Serra
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
7%
Amora and UD da Serra expected goals
Amora
1.25
UD da Serra
1.66
Total expected goals: 2.91
Amora and UD da Serra attack and defence ratings
Amora
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
0.94 -6%
UD da Serra
Attack
1.19 +19%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Amora vs UD da Serra: result vs prediction
Amora 3 – 4 UD da Serra
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Amora vs UD da Serra markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UD da Serra | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amora | 28.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| UD da Serra | 45.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | UD da Serra win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
Amora vs UD da Serra stats
Amora and UD da Serra recent form
| Amora |
L |
| UD da Serra |
WL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.