Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Messejanense
vs
Portel
0 – 8 Full time
Messejanense
55%
Draw
24%
Portel
22%
Messejanense vs Portel overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Messejanense vs Portel
| Probability | Messejanense | Draw | Portel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 23.9% | 21.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.6% | 23.9% | 21.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Messejanense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.19.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Messejanense and Portel expected goals
Messejanense
1.97
Portel
1.19
Total expected goals: 3.15
Messejanense and Portel attack and defence ratings
Messejanense
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Portel
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Messejanense vs Portel: result vs prediction
Messejanense 0 – 8 Portel
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Messejanense vs Portel markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Messejanense | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Messejanense | 54.6% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Portel | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Messejanense win | 32.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Messejanense vs Portel stats
Messejanense and Portel recent form
| Messejanense |
no matches on record |
| Portel |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.