Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Oliveira Hospital
vs
Sourense
1 – 0 Full time
Oliveira Hospital
44%
Draw
26%
Sourense
30%
Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense
| Probability | Oliveira Hospital | Draw | Sourense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.9% | 26.1% | 30.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.9% | 26.1% | 30.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Oliveira Hospital
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.37.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
59%
No goals
6%
Oliveira Hospital and Sourense expected goals
Oliveira Hospital
1.68
Sourense
1.37
Total expected goals: 3.05
Oliveira Hospital and Sourense attack and defence ratings
Oliveira Hospital
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Sourense
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
0.94 -6%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense: result vs prediction
Oliveira Hospital 1 – 0 Sourense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oliveira Hospital | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oliveira Hospital | 43.9% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Sourense | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oliveira Hospital win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense stats
Oliveira Hospital and Sourense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.