Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Salgueiros
vs
Sousense
2 – 1 Full time
Salgueiros
45%
Draw
22%
Sousense
32%
Salgueiros vs Sousense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Salgueiros vs Sousense
| Probability | Salgueiros | Draw | Sousense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.4% | 22.2% | 32.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 45.4% | 22.2% | 32.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Salgueiros
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.81.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
3%
Salgueiros and Sousense expected goals
Salgueiros
2.14
Sousense
1.81
Total expected goals: 3.95
Salgueiros and Sousense attack and defence ratings
Salgueiros
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Sousense
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Salgueiros vs Sousense: result vs prediction
Salgueiros 2 – 1 Sousense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Salgueiros vs Sousense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salgueiros | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.8% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Salgueiros | 45.4% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Sousense | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% |
| No | 25.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Salgueiros win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.5% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Salgueiros vs Sousense stats
Salgueiros and Sousense recent form
| Salgueiros |
LW |
| Sousense |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.