Farul Constanta
vs
Oţelul
Garuda Lions Prediction: Farul Constanta
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Farul Constanta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Farul Constanta vs Oţelul
| Probability | Farul Constanta | Draw | Oţelul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.7% | 25.6% | 22.7% |
| Market | 51.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% |
| Final | 51.5% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.1% | +0.1% |
Why Farul Constanta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (our 51.5% × 1.82 − 1).
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul match preview
Farul Constanta enters this match with a probability of 52% to win, while Oţelul has a 22% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Farul Constanta, which reflects their stronger expected goals of 1.77 compared to Oţelul's 1.11. Additionally, there is a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 57%.
In terms of recent form, Farul Constanta has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Oţelul has struggled significantly, with four losses and just one draw in their recent outings. The head-to-head record from the last three encounters shows Farul Constanta with one win, one draw, and one win for Oţelul, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Farul Constanta and Oţelul expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Farul Constanta and Oţelul attack and defence ratings
Farul Constanta
Oţelul
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farul Constanta | 51.5% | 1.94 | +0.1% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farul Constanta | 51.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Oţelul | 22.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Farul Constanta win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul stats
Farul Constanta and Oţelul recent form
| Farul Constanta |
LWLWDD |
| Oţelul |
DLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Farul Constanta and Oţelul season so far
Farul Constanta record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Oţelul record
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Oţelul | Farul Constanta | Liga I | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Oţelul | Farul Constanta | Liga I | 2-2 |
| 2025-07-20 | Farul Constanta | Oţelul | Liga I | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Farul Constanta vs Oţelul odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.4%, draw 26.1%, away 22.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.54 | 4.26 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.54 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.67 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.08 | 3.56 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .