Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
vs
Universitatea Craiova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitatea Craiova
0 – 1 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Universitatea Craiova is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova
| Probability | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Draw | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.7% | 29.8% | 55.6% |
| Market | 16.6% | 23.5% | 59.9% |
| Final | 16.1% | 25.0% | 58.8% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +1.6% | -1.1% |
Why Universitatea Craiova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 58.8% × 1.55 − 1).
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova match preview
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe faces Universitatea Craiova in an upcoming Liga I match, with kickoff scheduled for October 24, 2026. According to our model, Sepsi has a 20% chance of winning, while Craiova is favored at 54%, and the probability of a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals for Sepsi is 0.62, compared to Craiova's 1.34, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Sepsi OSK has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Universitatea Craiova has been in better shape, with four wins and one draw in the same period. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at an 18% probability, with a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.00
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova attack and defence ratings
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Universitatea Craiova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 58.8% | 1.70 | -1.1% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 16.1% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Universitatea Craiova | 58.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.0% |
| No | 65.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.0% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 17.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.7% | |
| 0-2 | 13.3% |
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova stats
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova recent form
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
DLLWLW |
| Universitatea Craiova |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe and Universitatea Craiova season so far
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitatea Craiova record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe vs Universitatea Craiova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.6%, draw 23.5%, away 59.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.59 | 3.92 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.00 | 1.54 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 3.92 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 5.76 | 4.07 | 1.54 |
| SBO | 4.94 | 3.52 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
23 snapshots recorded, from .