Universitatea Craiova
vs
FC Botosani
Garuda Lions Prediction: Universitatea Craiova
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.62.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani
| Probability | Universitatea Craiova | Draw | FC Botosani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.3% | 17.3% | 7.3% |
| Market | 65.6% | 21.4% | 13.0% |
| Final | 68.0% | 20.4% | 11.6% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -1.0% | -1.4% |
Why Universitatea Craiova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Universitatea Craiova below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (our 68.0% × 1.44 − 1).
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani match preview
Universitatea Craiova enters the match against FC Botosani with a strong recent form, having won five of their last six games. Their expected goals stand at 2.36, indicating a solid attacking performance, while FC Botosani has an expected goals figure of 0.62, reflecting struggles in their offensive play. The probabilities suggest a high likelihood of a Universitatea Craiova victory at 68%, with a draw at 20% and FC Botosani at 12%.
In terms of scoring, the most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0 in favor of Universitatea Craiova, which aligns with the model's projection of 57% for over 2.5 goals in the match. Both teams to score has a probability of 43%, indicating a potential challenge for FC Botosani to breach Universitatea Craiova's defense, especially given their head-to-head record, where Universitatea Craiova has won once and drawn once in the last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani attack and defence ratings
Universitatea Craiova
FC Botosani
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 68.0% | 1.47 | +2.4% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universitatea Craiova | 68.0% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| FC Botosani | 11.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.6% |
| No | 57.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Universitatea Craiova win | 52.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 24.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 3-0 | 11.1% |
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani stats
Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani recent form
| Universitatea Craiova |
WWDWWW |
| FC Botosani |
LLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani season so far
Universitatea Craiova record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Botosani record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Universitatea Craiova | FC Botosani | Liga I | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | FC Botosani | Universitatea Craiova | Liga I | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.6%, draw 21.4%, away 13.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.33 | 7.18 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.20 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .