Garuda Lions
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Liga I · ·Matchday 14

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Garuda Lions Prediction: Oţelul

1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.93.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Oţelul

Stadionul Otelul, Galati

Oţelul 42%
Draw 29%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Oţelul wins
42%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
90%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
48%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
12% of simulated outcomes

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOţelulDrawSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Model49.4%28.5%22.1%
Market39.9%29.8%30.3%
Final42.2%29.5%28.3%
Edge+2.4%-0.3%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Oţelul

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.93.
  • The market prices Oţelul below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.0% per unit staked (our 42.2% × 2.32 − 1).

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe match preview

Oţelul faces Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe in an upcoming Liga I match. According to our model, Oţelul has a 42% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 30% and Sepsi OSK at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Oţelul, with a 14% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.33 for Oţelul and 0.81 for Sepsi OSK.

In terms of recent form, Oţelul has struggled with five games without a win, recording four losses and one draw. Conversely, Sepsi OSK has shown some resilience, with two wins in their last five matches, including a recent victory. Our model indicates a 36% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Oţelul ↓ / Sepsi OSK Sfan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 12% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe expected goals

Oţelul 1.51
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.93

Total expected goals: 2.44

Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack and defence ratings

Oţelul

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Attack 0.67 -33%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

Liga I

Before and after this match

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Oţelul 42.2% 2.37 +2.4% 2.32
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.0% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score No 51.6% 1.94 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.7% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.6% 1.98 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Oţelul42.2%
Draw29.5%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe28.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.0%
Under 2.556.0%
Both teams to scoreYes48.4%
No51.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.7%
12 (either side)70.5%
X2 (draw or away)57.8%
Handicap -1Oţelul win25.8%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss50.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-011.9%
0-010.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe stats

Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe recent form

newest first
Oţelul LDLLLL
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe DLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Oţelul and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season so far

league record

Oţelul record

  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe record

  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 12 matches.

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Oţelul vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 29.8%, away 30.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.32 3.12 3.04
Betano 2.32 3.10 3.10
Betfair 2.30 3.10 3.10
Dafabet 2.32 3.10 3.05
Marathonbet 2.30 3.12 3.02
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.32 ▼ -0.02
X 3.10 —
2 3.05 ▼ -0.02

15 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Oţelul Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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