Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Garuda Lions Prediction: Petrolul Ploiesti
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
| Probability | Petrolul Ploiesti | Draw | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.6% | 28.2% | 19.3% |
| Market | 44.1% | 28.1% | 27.8% |
| Final | 46.2% | 28.1% | 25.6% |
| Edge | +8.5% | +0.0% | -8.5% |
Why Petrolul Ploiesti
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Petrolul Ploiesti below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe match preview
Petrolul Ploiesti is projected to have a 47% probability of winning against Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. The expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti stand at 1.53, while Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe is forecasted to have 0.84 expected goals. Recent form shows Petrolul Ploiesti with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-W-L, while Sepsi OSK has struggled, recording L-L-W-L-W-D.
The probability of a draw is calculated at 28%, and both teams are anticipated to score in 46% of scenarios. Over 2.5 goals is expected in 42% of matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is noted as C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions provided.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack and defence ratings
Petrolul Ploiesti
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 46.2% | 2.16 | +8.5% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.4% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 46.2% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 25.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Petrolul Ploiesti win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 47.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 2-0 | 11.0% |
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe stats
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe recent form
| Petrolul Ploiesti |
LWDWWL |
| Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
LLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe season so far
Petrolul Ploiesti record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Petrolul Ploiesti | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-04 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-08 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Liga I | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-07 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Cupa României | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 0-0 |
| 2022-11-23 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Petrolul Ploiesti | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2022-11-23 | Petrolul Ploiesti | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2022-11-11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | Petrolul Ploiesti | Liga I | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Petrolul Ploiesti vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 28.1%, away 27.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.34 | 3.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.34 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.39 | 3.43 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 2.84 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .